A new independent poll shows Indiana state Treasurer Richard Mourdock leading incumbent Sen. Richard Lugar by 10 points in the upcoming Republican primary.
According to the Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll, which was conducted earlier this week, Mourdock has 48 percent of the vote compared to Lugar’s 38 percent in the closely watched GOP fight. The survey also shows the Tea Party affiliated challenger leading among so-called “leaners” who could change their minds in the final three days of the race by eight points.
From Howey Politics:
Based on this survey data, Howey Politics Indiana is moving the Senate race into a “Likely Mourdock” category. It had been “Leans Lugar” until the March 26-28 Howey/DePauw survey had Lugar leading Mourdock 42-35%, at which time HPI moved the Senate race into “Tossup.
And it appears to be a confirmation of a Tea Party mantra that a single challenger to Lugar would consolidate their support, with the incumbent getting about 39% of the “establishment” Republican vote – the percentage that U.S. Sen. Dan Coats won in the 2010 Republican primary against four other candidates.
Among the 700 likely voters surveyed, Lugar has a wide lead with moderates, but Mourdock takes voters who consider themselves “very conservative” by almost 40 points.
The Indiana primary is May 8.