by Graham Shelby
A major winter storm is making its way across the country. It’s expected to drop a foot of snow or more in some places, but the effects in Louisville might not be so dramatic.
“For Kentucky in general, this is going to be an all-rain event,” says National Weather Service meteorologist Mark Jarvis. “A surge of warm air is going to come up ahead of the system and keep our temperature profile such that rain will be the primary precipitation type.”
That warm air will give way to colder temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Snow is possible, and the area could see about an inch of accumulation.
More snow as well as freezing rain are expected in Southern and Central Indiana.
“The worst of it really is probably going to be across Dubois, Orange, Washington, Scott Jefferson Counties, up toward the Bloomington area,” says Jarvis.
Louisville has received 16.3 inches of snow this year. That’s about the same as what the city normally gets in an entire winter, though spring is still seven weeks away. Last year, meteorologists’ three main predictions for this winter in the Louisville area were: An early start to winter; lots of snow; and a warmup in January, which didn’t happen.
“The climate forecast from the climate prediction center was that we would warm up. And we haven’t,” says Jarvis. “Currently we’re running two-point-three degrees below normal.”
Jarvis says variables in the computer models meteorologists use make accurate long range predictions difficult, but there is still demand for such forecasts, mostly from scientists, the media and the agriculture industry.
The forecast for February is below-normal temperatures with above-normal precipitation.