Thursday, the Louisville Metro Council’s Budget Committee held a special meeting to hear an analysis of the current economic situation.
The committee asked University of Louisville economist Paul Coomes to give his insight into past recessions and compare them to the one happening right now. Coomes told them this recession is already longer than average, and he doesn’t think the economy has hit bottom yet.
“This recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, started last December,” he says. “So assuming we’re not out of it, which I don’t think we are, we’re already 12 months in. So this would be a long recession already by historic standards and it’s looking to be a relatively deep one.”
He says there are still parts of the market that haven’t been significantly hit.
“It could go over to personal spending habits on vacations and restaurants,” says Coomes. “I’m getting mixed reports on that. It’s not clear that it’s really going south, but it’s possible.”
Coomes says he expects unemployment to increase and city revenues to remain flat for the rest of the fiscal year.